Why the title? …Because all reasons for the staging of a professional boxing bout ultimately gravitate towards the least understood and least publicly discussed topic: Financial Opportunity. And the ideal opportunity for a boxer is to earn big in a fight, earn bigger in the next, and the next, until he reaches his maximum.
This space is too short for an elaborate discussion of profound issues like ambition, dream, accomplishment, self fulfilment, prestige, pride, challenge, struggle etc. We will have to set them aside for another forum, and deal now with the practicalities and realities of the Pacquiao boxing business.
Certainly, the technical aspects of the sport would have to be factored in like power, stamina, durability, recuperative ability, offensive and defensive prowess, as well as, fighting intelligence, fighting heart, hunger for winning, athleticism, etc. But all these are already the “givens” before the fight contract is signed by the contending parties who are after financial opportunity. No contract agreement, no fight, no matter how superhuman and evenly matched both boxers are. All the boxing experts in the world can petition Pacquiao to fight someone most technically qualified or for somebody’s title-belt, yet nothing can prevent his camp from choosing another opponent who can surpass the others in multiplying the Pacman’s sale of stadium tickets, pay-per-view installations, and commercial sponsorships.
For assessing the most likely among Pacquiao’s next opponent, I will have to use the Desirability Index (DI) from Pacquiao’s management and promoters’ points of interest. They are: 1) Potential Net Profit (not only of the next fight, but also the consequential fight, as a result); 2) Effect on Pacquiao’s Career (win or lose); and, 3) Probable Wear-and-Tear Effects of the Fight on Pacquiao.
Each point of interest for Pacquiao’s manager and promoters are allotted a maximum of +5 to a minimum of -5 for a ranking of the most to the least desirable opponent, respectively.
I have limited my choices for Pacquiao’s most desirable opponents to five, namely: Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr., Floyd Mayweather, Jr., Shane Mosley, Juan Manuel Marquez, and Miguel Cotto. Welterweight/super light and light weight champions Andreas Kotelnik, Timothy Bradley, Juan Uranggo, Paulus Moses and Edwin Valero have been excluded for reasons that will be obvious after reading this article.
|
FACTORS OF INTEREST |
PRIORITY OPPONENTS |
||||
|
Chavez Jr. |
Cotto |
Marquez |
Mayweather Jr. |
Mosley |
|
| Projected Net Profit With |
+5 |
+4 |
+5 |
+3.8 |
+4 |
| Effect on Pacquiao’s Career: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Win Over… |
+5 |
+5 |
+4 |
+5 |
+5 |
|
Loss To…. |
-5 |
-3 |
-5 |
-3 |
-3 |
| Pacquiao’s Wear-and-Tear in Fight Against: |
-4 |
-2 |
-5 |
-3 |
-1 |
| Desirability Index (net) |
+1 |
+4 |
-1 |
+2.8 |
+5 |
| RANKING |
4th |
2nd |
5th |
3rd |
1st |
Qualitative Explanations:
On Chavez, Jr. — Chavez gets a positive but low DI, because he is deadly serious in his desire to stop Pacquiao’s “winning” streak. He knows he lacks the shifty footwork, as of now. But because of his yearning to equal/surpass his father, he will definitely adapt his training to Pacquiao’s hands speed and shifty footwork. He is the youngest (learner) among the potential opponents. When (not if) he does, Pacquiao will be hard pressed reaching him. It can be the replication, of sort, of the Tommy Hearns versus Roberto Duran fight. Otherwise, if Pacquiao manages to penetrate, it might become, somewhat, a replay of the Hearns versus Leonard fight.
Win or lose, Pacquiao will receive a pounding. A fight which his group would rather not take. It’s bad business. Quoting Bob Arum after hearing Chavez, Jr wanting to fight Pacquiao, “He’s too tall for Manny!”
Win or lose, this is a credible fight for Pacquiao.
On Cotto — For all his strengths and terrifying advantages against Pacquiao, he ranks high in the priority list simply because he is hungry for his biggest million dollar fight. He is susceptible to a fixed loss. I have the opinion that Cotto will not be that expensive to entice, next to Mosley. A controversial loss to Pacquiao won’t ruin a prospective rematch with the man he beat. The same man who mauled Margarito, his vanquisher. The paying public wants the three of them to settle their pairing contradictions.
A Pacquiao win in a dubious fight.
On Marquez — He is the lowest priority among the Pacman’s opponents. Filipinos and Mexicans know the real score. Marquez is the “contrapelo” (natural antidote) for Pacquiao. No boxer in the world (excluding those who fought Pacquiao before training with Roach) could recuperate faster from bombs and then lacerate Pacquiao’s face the way Marquez did. This extremely talented “guerrero” (warrior), despite being the only potential opponent having a natural weight like that of Pacquiao, is legitimately the worst business prospect for the Philippines’ pride.
Win or lose, a credible fight for Pacquiao.
On Mayweather — This poetry in motion is, beyond argument, another fighter that over-matches Pacquiao. Hatton and Dela Hoya being the two others, but who were too shrewd to pass up their respective multimillion dollar “incentives.” (For an iconoclastic revelation about this, please read my previous two articles.)
It is utter nonsense that Pacquiao can win over Pretty Boy unless, like my previous opinions on the Dela Hoya and Hatton fights, he accepts a fix to lose the fight. He might, for a minimum of $12 million but it might also leave the match makers holding a half-empty bag or worse, make the bout unviable. That’s my reason for giving him the lowest DI on Projected Net Profit. However, a big promotional extravaganza that has never been seen before coupled with a record-breaking ticket sales, PPV frenzy and gargantuan commercial sponsorships that can offset Pretty Boy’s asking price will make this latest collusion a reality.
A Pacquiao win in a dubious fight.
On Mosley — He is the oldest in line but has the highest priority. Mayweather will fight Marquez. Meantime, Pacquiao can fight Mosley. The Sugar Shane, unlike the second renowned Sugar (Ray Leonard), hasn’t been named in Forbes Magazine Top Celebrity Earners. I find him the least costly for contract budgeting. He will not yet be retirable after an “upset” loss to Pacquiao because of the need to settle matters in his triumvirate with Cotto and Margarito. Just like after Muhammad Ali’s losses to Ken Norton (1972) and Leon Spinks (1978), Mosley can continue to fight the younger big names after a loss to Pacquiao.
Pacquiao “winning” over Mosley, and without a scratch like in his Dela Hoya charade, is the best business for Pacquiao in the interim.
A Pacquiao win in a dubious fight.
The table above does not predict, with certainty, what Business Group– Pacquiao would eventually adopt. After all, business is 80% science and 20% art. Many say, this is also true in championship boxing — 80% physical and 20% mental.
The assigned DI values in the table are based on the writer’s own value judgement that had been formed by his personal insights. Readers can also role-play as Pacquiao’s manager and promoters. They may extend the list of potential opponents and assign corresponding DI to the additional boxers using their own analytical training, experience and level of expertise in boxing, as this writer has done above.
Please remember: Strategic planning is a forgotten tool of those who shift from one business-line analysis to another. It is a mystery, even a heresy, for many sports lovers, just like me. We feel that our territorial boundary is trespassed, our exclusive knowledge of the sport eroded by military and management concepts that are being introduced. So what’s new? Resistance to change and innovation has always been a hindrance to acquiring more knowledge and better understanding. Perhaps that is the biggest reason why most have been looking at the previous three questionable fights of Pacquiao with rose-colored glasses.
(As previously featured on page 1 of thefightcountdown, June 8, 2009)
Tags: accomplishment, ambition, Andreas Kotelnik, antidote, Antonio Margarito, athleticism, Bob Arum, challenge, contrapelo, Desirability Index, dream, durability, Edwin Valero, fight contract, fight opportunities, fight wear-and-tear, fighting heart, fighting intelligence, financial opportunity, Floyd Mayweather, Freddie Roach, guerrero, hunger for winning, iconoclasm, Jr., Juan Manuel Marquez, Juan Uranggo, Julio Cesar Chavez, maximum earning, offensive & defensive prowess, opponents, Oscar Dela Hoya, Pacquiao’s career, Paulus Moses, potential net profit, power, prestige, pride, professional boxing, realities of boxing, recuperative ability, revelation, Roberto Duran, rose-colored glasses, self-fulfillment, Shane Mosley, stamina, strategic planning, struggle, Sugar Ray Leonard, Thomas Hearns, Timothy Bradley
July 14, 2009 at 7:56 am |
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